For retail shareholders, 2022 has been a Jekyll and Hyde year with plenty of ups and downs. And by just about any measure, 2022 has been a downright frightening year for individual investors.
Every general measure of the market is down year-to-date after a late summer bump sputtered out. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 16%, S&P 500 is off 22% and NASDAQ Composite slid 32%. Investors found no shelter in Bitcoin (down 59%) or gold (down 9%).
For retail stockholders, 2022 has been a year filled with more tricks than treats. The communication services sector led the way down with stocks in the sector falling 37% year to date, which feels about as good as getting an apple while trick or treating as a kid. Stocks for companies like Alphabet (Tii:GOOG), Meta Platforms (Tii:META), The Walt Disney Company (Tii:DIS), Verizon Communications (Tii:VZ), Comcast Corp. (Tii:CMCSA) and AT&T are all down by double digit percentages this year with T-Mobile US (Tii:TMUS) one of the very few bright spots in the sector whose share price is up slightly.
Real estate has been the second worst-performing sector so far this year. Stocks in the sector are down about 25% year to date, the stock market equivalent of getting your house egged. American Tower Corp. (Tii:AMT) stock is down nearly 35% so far this year while Prologis (Tii:PLD) dropped 37% and Crown Castle (Tii:CCI) is off 39%.
These two sectors are not alone. Year to date, every sector’s stocks have cumulatively declined except for energy. The information technology sector is down 31%, materials down 22%, consumer discretionary down 31%, healthcare down 12%, financials down 19%, industrials down 17%, consumer staples and utilities both down 11% each. If you are invested in these sectors, it feels a bit like the delinquents in your neighborhood toilet papered your house.
The energy sector is the one bright spot, like that house on your street trick or treating that gives out full-sized candy bars. ConocoPhillips (Tii:COP) is up 69%, Exxon Mobile Corp. (Tii:XOM) is up 64%, Chevron Corp. (Tii:CVX) is up 42%, Shell (Tii:RYDAF) is up 17% and BP (Tii:BP) is up 13%.
For retail shareholders, there is a silver lining. Sectors like consumer discretionary, industrials, real estate, financials, technology and minerals tend to rebound earlier than others, though individual investors should carefully consider any investment. Unfortunately, macroeconomic forces are working against any quick rebound. The U.S. Federal Reserve has aggressively raised interest rates with more hikes expected. Earnings for many companies were strong early in the year, but have slowed recently. And municipal bonds have been battered in 2022.
Market news in 2022 has been generally negative and the malaise as sticky as a half-eaten Slo Poke Carmel Pop, but the strongest six-month period of the year for the market usually starts in November. Add to that the bump the market generally sees in mid-term election years, low unemployment and spend-happy consumers and we could be looking at a Santa Claus Rally, where the market sees a rise in stock prices during the last five trading days in December and the first two trading days in the following January. More than two-thirds of Decembers dating back to the 1960s have resulted in positive gains for shareholders, though there are no guarantees.
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